Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($3.31 ½), July ½ cent lower ($3.36 ¼) & Dec 1 cent lower ($3.49 ¾)

May Chgo Ethanol closed $0.006 cents a gallon higher ($0.944), June $0.012 higher ($0.981)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.029 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.200 M T. expected

Monday bought us a two-sided trade in corn with a fractionally easier close in the old crop and modestly easier close in the new crop. The daily highs came early in the Sunday night session while the lows came early in the Monday day session. Early strength came from the idea that ethanol problems may soon go away based on the OPEC deal. The day’s weakness stemmed from the problems that are developing in the livestock processing sector. Weekly export inspections came in at mid-range of expectations. This afternoon the USDA will begin corn planting progress – trade ideas have 3% of the intended crop planted (USDA reports 3% of the intended crop has been planted).

Cash corn movement remains minimal at best. Most interior locations are running unchanged vs. levels posted last week. There is one exception; Decatur, IL corn basis is 5 cents better. The midday posting at the Gulf reads 1 cent lower bid and unchanged offer vs. Thursday’s posting. Old crop spreads posted a fractional bullish bias out to December. The December forward spreads showed a fractional bearish bias.

The technical look – old crop corn challenges last week’s low and it holds. That prompted some minor short covering. New crop corn did pump out new lows but it seems the market ran out of sellers. If I had to guess the corn market in general appears to be running out of sellers. I’m not sure there is much upside potential given the recent hike in carryout. What upside that may materialize will be short covering from the spec sector. What will prompt the short covering – higher prices for summer gasoline prices and or ideas that livestock processing plant shutdowns will be short lived.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/14

July Corn – $3.32 – $3.42

Dec Corn – $3.45 – $3.54 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.