Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.19 ¼), July 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.26) & Dec 2 cents higher ($3.38 ¾)

May Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($0.933), June $0.013 cents higher ($0.954)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 726.7 K T. old crop vs. 600 k – 1.100 M T. expected – <-55.9 K T.> new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Talk from “sources” that sometime in the future China will buy 20.0 M T. of corn in an effort to restock their state reserves. No time frame has been mentioned and we have no clue who “sources” are. This initially stretched the recent run of short covering before some profit taking set in. Futures dipped to lower on the day before some late buying surfaced going into the close. Weekly export sales were nothing to write home about. Crude oil continues to rebound from earlier in the week which in turn lent some support. Overall it is my thought that the majority of the buying we have seen over the past few days is speculative short covering.

The interior corn basis continues to show a steady to firm bias. I have to think the majority of the recent basis strength is due to a lack of movement not necessarily market making demand. The Gulf basis has been running unchanged dating back to last Thursday. Corn spreads ran mixed on the day as May gains on July while July loses to Sept and Dec. Bull spreads were working for the 2021-21 crop year.

Today’s highs had prices challenging resistance levels that were established one a half weeks ago when the corn market was trying to stabilize. I’m not sure we can place a whole lot of credibility in the China corn rumor at least not for the near term. It is my thought the mid-low $3.30’s represents formidable resistance for the near term (July). The same can be said for the mid-high $3.40’s for the December contract. I’m not wild about chasing the rally going into the weekend.

Daily Support & Resistance 4/24

July Corn $3.21 – $3.32

Dec Corn $3.34 – $3.44

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