Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 3 ½ cents lower ($3.20 ¼), July 4 cents lower ($3.18 ¼) & Dec 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.32 ½)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.012 cents per gallon higher ($1.118), July $0.006 cents higher ($1.108)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 617 K bpd vs. 598 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 24.2 million bbls vs. 25.6 million bbls week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected

So much for yesterday’s post report burst of short covering. Today’s corn trade never traded higher. The ethanol grind report looked somewhat positive (improving grind/lower stocks) but it was not given a second look. There continues to be a lot of rhetoric that goes back and forth around China honoring its Phase One/Phase Two agreement. The latest has them offering more tariff waivers to their buyers. Weather forecasts suggest the new crop will get off to a good start; a fair amount of moisture over the next few days followed by warm and dry. If the US corn market is going to give us a sustaining rally its my belief it will have to come from the export sector and so far we haven’t seen enough to hang our hats on.

The interior corn basis still shows a firming bias. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Corn spreads gave back a portion of yesterday’s improvement / tightening.

Yesterday’s suggested interim upside reversal resulted with an inside day today. The spec sector of the trade continues to be a big time net short but today’s inability to give any follow buying from yesterday suggests he remains comfortable being that big time short. For what it is worth today’s inside day does not negate yesterday’s suggested interim buy signal but it will get negated if we see closes below yesterday’s low, $3.14 ½ July. Anyone trying to be friendly to the December will not want to see a close below $3.30.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/14

July Corn $3.14 – $3.24

Dec Corn $3.28 – $3.38

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.