Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($3.33 ¾), Sept 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.38 ¼) & Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.47 ½)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.245), August $0.013 cents higher ($1.226)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.100 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.250 M T. expected

USDA rates the US corn crop 75% GE (+1%) vs. 75% expected vs. 59% year ago – Planted – 97% vs. 97% expected vs. 94% 5-year average

Modest spec short covering was pretty much the story on Monday. Flat price corn shorts were being covered as well as short corn on inter-market spreads. Weekly export inspections were deemed solid. Higher ethanol prices lent additional support. Continued weakness with the US dollar works to keep US origin the cheapest out there. The second season corn crop out of Brazil continues to ratchet lower according to private analytical groups.

Interior Midwestern corn basis runs steady to lower. The lower basis is mostly along interior river locations. The midday Gulf posting runs unchanged with Friday’s posting. Corn spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day. Today was “Day 2” of the big boy index fund roll.

Flat price corn charts read higher with technical resistance levels almost immediately overhead. $3.35 to $3.40 appears as formidable resistance for July corn and $3.50 to $3.55 for December corn. On Thursday the USDA will update supply-demand. Between the USDA and current crop conditions/forecasts I’m not sure we have enough to overcome the outlined resistance levels despite the size of the spec short positions.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/09

July Corn: $3.28 – $3.36

Dec Corn $3.42 – $3.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.