Dec Corn closed 2 cents lower ($3.64 ¾), March 1 ½ cents lower ($3.74) & July 1 cent lower ($3.84)
October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.037 cents a gallon higher ($1.367), Nov $0.015 cents lower ($1.290)
Flat price corn continues in its current correction phase. The adage is that we still have 80-85 % of harvest yet to go. Interior basis levels run mixed but I’m not hearing much new crop corn being sold off of the combine. The Gulf remains quite strong. With minor amounts of carry in the old crop price structure the producer is opting to go after soybeans as the lack of carry in that price structure is begging for your soybeans.
I’m not placing a lot of importance on tomorrow’s quarterly grain stocks as it deals with old crop and going forward it’s all about the new crop. Earlier this month on the Sept Supply-Demand report the USDA suggested the old crop carryover is 2.253 billion bu. the average guess for the quarterly corn stocks is 2.250 billion bu. so not much change is expected. The USDA will also update last year’s crop size. They have been saying 13.617 billion bu. in recent months and the average guess for tomorrow’s update is 13.607 billion bu. so once again not much change is expected.
$3.60-$3.58 is still considered to be short term support for Dec corn. Immediate resistance is still the $370 level followed by $3.75. Until we get a better handle on yields we may be stuck for a while.
Daily Support & Resistance – 9/30
Dec Corn: $3.60 – $3.70
March Corn: $3.69 – $3.79
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