Dec Corn closed 14 ¼ cents higher ($3.79), March 14 ¼ cents higher ($3.88 ¼) & July 13 ¼ cents higher ($3.97 ¼)
October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.023 cents a gallon higher ($1.390), Nov $0.023 cents higher ($1.313)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 881 K bpd vs. 906 K week ago – Stocks – 19.7 million bbls vs. 20.0 million week ago
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Quarterly Corn Stocks – 1.995 billion bu. vs. 2.250 billion expected
2019/20 Corn Crop Revised – 13.620 billion bu. vs. 13.607 billion expected vs. 13.617 billion recent USDA
At the end of September one can always count on some sort of fireworks given the Quarterly Stocks report as well being the end of the quarter. Today the USDA gave us those fireworks as the Stocks report came in well below trade ideas. My guess is the feed number could see the biggest adjustment followed by exports. The current marketing year will now start with a carryin 258 million bu. below recent ideas. Couple this with the idea that subsequent production updates will feature a lower yield and better demand numbers (feed & exports) I have to think that for the near term any kind of technical correction of today’s rally will be well received.
Interior basis markets started the day mixed as some locations were on the defensive while others were needing corn. The midday posting at the Gulf continues to be strong. It will be interesting to see what kind of cash selling we see after today’s flat price rally. The nearby Dec/March spread ran unchanged on the day while the March forward spreads saw modest tightening out to July. It was the old/crop new crop spreads that saw the greatest tightening; July/Dec tightened by nearly 5 cents.
So – what kind of correction do we see from today’s 20 ¾ cent rally (low to high). I would be surprised to see a halfway back retracement. I have to think the bulls will have their horns raised high for the upcoming October 9th production update. The recent flat price correction in Dec corn now measure to the mid-high $3.90’s. I will view what was minor resistance prior to today’s report as new interim support; $3.75. $3.90 is now where congestive type resistance comes into play.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/01
Dec Corn: $3.75 – $3.86
March Corn: $3.84 – $3.95
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.