Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.08 ½), Dec 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.07 ¼) & March 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.15 ¼)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 105 K T. new crop to Italy, 120 K T. new crop to Unknown

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 555.6 K T. vs. 700 K – 1.150 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (-3%) vs. 60% expected vs. 64% year ago – Silking – 90% vs. 93% 5-year ave – Dough Stage – 45% vs. 49% 5-year ave – Dented – 6% vs. 9% 5-year ave

Flat price corn was under pressure for the majority of the day as recent rains favoring the eastern Corn Belt are believed sufficient enough to offset the hot & dry conditions in the western Corn Belt. Weekly corn export inspections were disappointing as they came in below expectations but they were offset by the USDA announced sales through their daily reporting system. More boats from Ukraine are leaving their ports. It was announced late in the session that the first load of corn that left Ukraine last Monday was rejected at its final port, Tripoli, Lebanon. Supposedly the reason behind the refusal that it was just too late in accordance with its original contract. So now there is a boat of old corn wandering the Mediterranean looking for a home.

Interior cash corn prices are mostly stable with only minor changes being seen. The Gulf market went undefined at is midday posting. The Sept/Dec corn spread is starting to exhibit ideas that the transition to new crop could get very tight or at least provide us with some fireworks. It was just a few days ago this spread traded at a 5 cent carry. Today it traded to a 6 cent inverse before settling at a 1 ¼ cent inverse.

As of this writing I’m trying to not look past consolidation ideas as we await the USDA on Friday.  The gap ($5.84) from two weeks ago should be viewed as support while resistance is probably closer to $6.30’s.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/09

Dec Corn: $6.00 ($5.94) – $6.24 

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