Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.12), Sept 9 ¼ cents lower ($4.15 ½) & Dec 9 cents lower ($4.22 ½)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $.005 cents a gallon lower ($1.580) & August $0.012 cents lower ($1.602)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 272.5 K T. vs. 500-800 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Progress & Condition – 56% GE (unch) vs. 57% expected vs. 76% year ago – Emerged – 94% vs. 100% 5-year average

Monday brings us follow through selling/liquidation from Friday’s USDA acreage curveball. I hope everyone was able to listen to the USDA’s interview I sent out explaining their rationale behind their acreage data. If you didn’t get it let me know and I’ll resend it to you. Whether or not you agree with them this is what we’ll have to deal with until their August production report when further acreage surveys are included.

Interior cash corn markets are on the defensive. I’m not sure all that much cash grain is moving but the spec selling/liquidation in the futures market weighs on the flat price. This occurred shortly after the USDA acreage report. The Gulf appears to be easing as well now that the river appears to be flowing a bit more freely. Corn spreads, Sept forward, showed a definite bearish bias.

Downside points to watch for potential support in Dec corn – filling the gap at $4.20 – a 50% retracement from the May 13th low to the June 17th high is $4.18 3/8th’s – a 61.8% retracement of that move is $4.05 ½.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/02

Sept Corn: $4.13 ($4.08) – $4.25  

Dec Corn: $4.20 ($4.15) – $4.32

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.