Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($4.17), Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($4.27) & March 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.36 ¾)

August Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.469) & Sept $0.002 cents a gallon higher ($1.493)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 645.3 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (+1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 72% year ago – Silking – 58% vs. 83% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 13% vs. 23% 5-year average

It looks like the corn market ran out of sellers for the time being. Concerns over crop conditions and actual acreage (conditions expected unchanged this afternoon) coupled with some minor technical considerations (short term oversold) limited the selling Sunday night and brought in some bottom picking on Monday. Nearby spreads stabilizing (Sept/Dec lost 6 cents since last Tuesday) helped stem the recent run of fund liquidation. Stronger wheat prices aided in today’s minor recovery.

Interior cash corn prices (basis) accelerated its recent decline. Just about all locations that I track, elevators, processors and river, saw lower postings today. The Gulf as well is easing from last week’s strength. The nearby spread, Sept/Dec. ran unchanged on the day but is showing signs of stabilizing. Forward spreads showed a fractional bullish bias. Overall I think the spread stabilization is more of a reaction, not an action, due their recent declines.

Dec corn registers an outside day with a higher close. On the surface that sounds supportive but when these types of reversals have the greatest impact they are done with good volume. Trading volume today did not appear to have the reversal type quality to it. I will not advocate selling current values but I need to see more to say we are making lows. I can, however, make a case for a sideways developing trade over the next couple of weeks as we wait on what the USDA has to say on the 12th.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/30

Sept Corn: $4.14 – $4.22  

Dec Corn: $4.24 – $4.32

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.