Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($4.06 ½), Dec 1 ½ cents higher ($4.14) & March 1 ¾ cents higher ($4.23 ¾)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.009 cents a gallon lower ($1.419) & Oct $0.009 cents lower ($1.424)

Reuters Survey Results for August 12th – Planted Acres 87.998 million – Yield 164.9 – Production 13.193 billion bu. – New Crop Carryout 1.620 billion bu. – Old Crop Carryout – 2.392 billion bu.

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Wednesday saw a very similar trade vs. what we saw on Tuesday – a quiet night session, early in the day session they tried to punch it lower only to see prices come back to finish slightly lower. Wednesday’s price action was similar; the only difference we finished slightly higher. The rationale behind the trade hasn’t changed; dry areas of the Midwest creating some concern, the late maturity of the crop and last but not least what will the USDA say on Monday. As of this writing the report will come down to a lower supply (how much lower) vs. what I think will be lower demand.

I don’t see much happening in the interior cash corn markets. Producers don’t want to sell hoping for some friendly data from the USDA next Monday. Export demand appears to be  nothing to write home about. The nearby corn spreads did show some further improvement as end-users worry about the timeliness of new crop availability. Then again there is plenty of old crop around to bridge that gap.

Flat price manages to hold on to Monday’s gains albeit in a very quiet manner. Despite the recent run of liquidation I still get the impression speculators/managed funds still want to be long. With that said we could see probing of the technical resistance that sits in the low to mid $4.20’s (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/08

Sept Corn: $4.03 – $4.11    

Dec Corn: $4.11 – $4.19

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