Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 6 cents lower ($3.65), Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($3.74 ½) & March 5 ¾ cents lower ($3.87)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.291) & Oct $0.014 cents lower ($1.295)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 510.3 K T. Vs. 600-800 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Condition & Progress – 56% GE (-1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 68% year ago – Silking – 95% vs. 99% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 55% vs. 76% 5-year average – Dented – 15% vs. 30% 5-year average

On Friday corn prices rallied from private yield estimates that were noticeably lower vs. what the USDA gave us on Monday. Weekend rains through many of the dry areas of the central Corn Belt has tempered some of those lower yield estimates as the rain will help the later maturing corn. Forecasts for this week suggest additional shots of moisture across the Midwest. This week the Pro Farmer tour kicks off starting in Ohio and S. Dakota. Early returns from northwest Ohio talked about much below normal yield potential to near normal yield potential. Early returns from S. Dakota talked about much lower than normal yield potential. Weekly corn export inspections continue to be near dismal. As we move through the week the trade will continue its focus on two items; the Pro Farmer crop tour and the weather.

There is no corn movement to speak of at this point in time. Interior basis levels are running unchanged to higher. The locations that read higher are interior river sites. Processors appear to be standing in. the export basis continues to look soft as it reflects our poor export program. Corn spreads ran fractionally weaker within the 2019-20 crop year. 2019-20 loses noticeably to 2020-21.

I came away with two positives to today’s trade despite finishing noticeably lower. We did not negate Friday’s suggestive signal at consolidation as we were just an inside day of Friday. The second positive was that we did not make new lows for the day going into the close. As of this writing I continue to lean towards a consolidation effort. Anyone looking at this suggestion will not want to see a noticeable close below the $3.70 level (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/20

Sept Corn: $3.60 – $3.70  

Dec Corn: $3.70 – $3.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.