Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 3 cents higher ($3.62 ½), Dec 1 ½ cents higher ($3.70 ¼) & March 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.82 ½)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.048 cents a gallon higher ($1.350) & Oct $0.048 cents higher ($1.355)

USDA announces 328.0 K T. of corn sold to Mexico

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.023 million bpd vs. 1.045 million one week ago – Stocks – 23.4 million bbls vs. 23.9 million one week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – Old crop vs. 50-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Six more days to Sept Corn 1st notice day and it looks like the shorts are on the run. It was just last Wednesday the Sept/Dec spread traded out to a 12 cent carry; today the spread traded into a 7 ¼ cent carry. It was the strength of the spread that buoyed the flat price off of new lows for the current down move. It is my thought that the announced 328.0 K T. corn sale to Mexico is what sparked the spread strength/short covering. Today’s minor reversal of the current down trend may have the short sellers thinking twice about how aggressive they want to be as we approach contract lows.

The interior corn basis ran steady to mixed today. Burns Harbor backs off on their bid while Cedar Rapids improves. Interior river locations are maintaining recent improvements from Monday. The midday posting for the Gulf edges slightly higher. Once again it looks like the shorts in Sept corn are on the run ahead of first notice day late next week.

So will today’s minor reversal be able to follow through? Given the fact that Sept corn was your upside leader on Wednesday those wanting to be friendly down here at current will look to see how that contract is performing and go from there. If flat price is beginning the process of making interim lows I’ll have to see closes above the $3.80 level (Dec) before I start to believe.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/22

Sept Corn: $3.59 – $3.68  

Dec Corn: $3.68 – $3.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.