Sept Corn closed 4 cents higher ($3.51 ¼), Dec 4 cents higher ($3.65) & March 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.76 ½)
August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.008 cent a gallon lower ($1.420), Sept 0.007 cent higher ($1.419)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 641.0 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – 774.5 K T. new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected
The grind higher out of last week’s hole continues. Better than expected weekly export sale and concerns that the national yield is not as great as previously thought just a few weeks ago prompts another round of spec short covering. Strength in wheat also lent support. The latest NWS forecast for the month of August calls for above normal temps and below normal moisture for the majority of the Corn Belt. As this forecast circulated during the morning it worked to keep futures firm with little to no intra-day easing.
Only a few changes are being noted with the interior corn basis. The Ohio River is 5 cents lower, Toledo is 2 cents better and Davenport, IA is 2 cents better. Processors still have the best bids out there while most river locations continue to be on the defensive. Not much happens at the Gulf. The Sept/Dec corn spread remains wide while Dec forward spreads continue to show improvement.
If my chart reading skills are worth anything the corn market is advertising that we have gone low enough for the time being. Immediate downtrend lines have fallen by the wayside.The next major hurdle will be the August 10th crop production report and whatever the USDA pegs the national yield. Between ow and then all of the “smart guys” will try to assess what the yield will be. As of this writing I can’t imagine there are too many out there willing to say we have a 180+ plus yield given the recent downturn in conditions. Then again the USDA annually warns us not to place too much stock in their weekly ratings. We have to remember last year’s ratings were nothing special but the eventual yield was stronger than expected. Since the flat price closed above last Thursday’s reversal high the next upside target will be the mid-$3.70’s (Dec).
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/20
Sept Corn: $3.47 – $3.56
Dec Corn: $3.61 – $3.70
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.