Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 7 ¼ cents higher ($3.59 ¼), Dec 7 ¼ cents higher ($3.73 ¼) & March 7 cents higher ($3.84 ¼)

August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.002 cents a gallon higher ($1.425), Sept 0.011 cents higher ($1.430)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.074 million bpd vs. 1.064 last week – Stocks – 21.7 million bbls vs. 21.8 last week

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected

Flat price corn trades higher on the coattails of the screaming higher wheat market. Europe and the Black Sea area talk about how the hot & dry spring impacted its winter crops. I’m told that weather scenario is still hanging around so I have to think their spring crops are feeling some impact. I’m still not hearing a lot of pollination results.  What few I have heard has “minuses are leading the pluses” but you have to realize the “minuses” yell the loudest. Going forward for the near term the corn trade will continue to be influenced by the wheat trade. If wheat continues to move higher corn will go along for the ride but to a lesser extent.  If the wheat trade goes into a correction phase the corn market will sell off rather easily.

The Ohio River is still reaching for corn. Illinois River locations are no big deal. I am hearing of logistical problems on the river in at southern Illinois.  This in turn is boosting the export basis.  The Sept/Dec corn spread stays at its widest.  Dec forward spreads are showing incremental fractional improvements.

I’m not sure were corn prices would be if not for the sharply higher wheat market.  The corn price action, all by itself, now reads it wants to go higher.  This is a bit of a reversal from what the price action was suggesting after Tuesday’s performance.  As of this writing it now looks like Dec corn is ready to challenge the suspected resistance levels of $3.75 to $3.80.  I will offer that I don’t think the corn market can go it alone as far as extending its rally.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/26

Sept Corn: $3.52 – $3.65  

Dec Corn: $3.66 – $3.79                   

 

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