Sept Corn closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($3.62 ¼), Dec 6 cents higher ($3.76 ½) & March 6 cents higher ($3.88)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.004 cents a gallon higher ($1.353), Oct 0.002 cents lower ($1.350)
Flat price corn picked up where it left on Monday afternoon – retracing the Friday, Sunday night near 17 cent break. A lack of selling coupled with strength in soybean meal and soybeans was the rationale for the buying. Monday afternoon’s 1% downgrade of nation’s corn crop was the initial supporting issue.
Next week the ProFarmer crop tour starts. They will estimate yields in Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska and S. Dakota. 5 out of the past 6 years their yields came in below the USDA August figure and 6 out of the past 6 years their yields came in below the USDA September figure.
Interior river basis levels for corn are improving now that the logjam at Alton, IL has been fixed. The recent break in the flat price has shut down farmer selling. I’m thinking today’s rally, 11 cents off of Monday’s low, may attract some old crop. Processors remain reluctant to reach for corn given the idea we will see a spate of old crop move prior to the end of the month, the end of the marketing year. Sept corn continues to lose on the spread in anticipation of this movement as well as the prospect of an early harvest. Dec forward spreads ran steady on the day.
Last week, before Friday’s sell-off, I suggested $3.78 was the jump off point for recent longs. We came within a cent or so of that level today. My entire chart reading skills suggests I’m supposed to sell this level up to $3.80.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/15
Sept Corn: $3.58 – $3.64
Dec Corn: $3.72 – $3.78
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