Sept Corn closed 3 ½ cents higher ($3.54 ½), Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($3.68 ¼) & March 2 ½ cents higher ($3.79 ¾)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.023 cents a gallon higher ($1.303), Oct 0.017 cents higher ($1.323)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.334 M T. vs. 900 K – 1.300 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Condition & Progress – 67% GE (-1%) vs. 68% expected vs. 61% year ago – Dented – 75% vs. 60% 5-year average – Mature – 22% vs. 11% 5-year average
Argentina’s new tax on corn exports coupled with concerns over excessive moisture in parts of the Midwest supports the corn market on Monday. Forecasts suggest more rain this rain for the already soggy areas. A noticeably drier forecast is being circulated for next week. Monday night’s trade in corn saw mostly steady prices. The day session had corn selling off when wheat and soy prices sold off to their respective day’s lows but bounced back quickly as spec short covering entered the market place. Inter-market spreading, long corn short wheat, was evidenced. Other than Ukraine the US will be a primary corn exporter to the World until the new crop from SA comes on line in the 2nd quarter of 2019.
Changes seen in the interior corn basis have taken on a mixed look. As locations rolled out of Sept and into the Dec some did it at the quoted Sept/Dec spread while some did it showing basis improvement. To date cash corn sales have not been as great as one might expect this close to harvest. It should be noted that Sept, Dec and March all gained ground vs. the May forward. That suggests to me we will see our best corn business from now until early spring when the SA new crop comes on line. For spreads to try and work right ahead of harvest is quite notable in my eyes.
The corn chart has taken on an almost impressive look with its ability to honor the July lows and now rally out of the hole. The best looking near term resistance comes in at $3.73 – $3.74 followed by $3.78 – $3.80. Support for now will be today’s low at $3.61 down to $3.58.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/05
Dec Corn: $3.64 ½ – $3.72
March Corn: $3.76 ½ – $3.84
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