Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.48), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.60) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($3.74 ¾)

October Chgo Ethanol closed 0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.274), Nov 0.007 cents lower ($1.281)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.030 M T. vs. 850 K – 1.200 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 68% GE (unch) vs. 68% expected vs. 61% year ago – Mature – 54% vs. 36% 5-year average – Harvested – 9% vs. 10% expected vs. 6% 5-year average

Monday brings another round of new contract lows, new contract low closes as an impending harvest and a big one at that weighs on the corn market. Sure, we can tout the US is the corn market to the world but so far the world has not stepped up with any market making demand. Last week I suggested the presence of end-user buying at the recent new lows but I also stated the end-user is willing to let the market come to him. Weekly export inspections were deemed as ”okay”; they were mid-range of expectations. Harvest should roll until mid-late this week as it appears a new wet pattern will be forming. Forecasts suggest this wet pattern could last into month’s end.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) continue to reflect the impending harvest. With the exception of a couple of processors a defensive tone is still with us. The Gulf is in this same camp; on the defense. Corn spreads ran steady to fractionally lower up front while the 2018-19 crop year continues to lose to 2019-20.

I see absolutely nothing in the price action that suggests the corn market is ready to turn it around or even stabilize. I will admit the managed money sector is getting pretty short while the spec sector has a ways to go before precedent gets challenged. For weekly charts to hint at a turnaround we need to see weekly closes, basis the nearby (Dec in this case), above $3.57 ¼. I’m not an advocate of selling current levels but then again I’m not seeing anything that suggests ownership.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/18

Dec Corn: $3.44 ½ – $3.52

March Corn: $3.56 ½ – $3.64 ½       

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.