Dec Corn closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.67 ½), March 2 ½ cents higher ($3.79 ¼) & July 2 cents higher ($3.91 ¾)
Nov Chgo Ethanol closes 0.010 cents a gallon higher ($1.320), Dec 0.010 higher ($1.339)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.431 M T. old crop vs. 1.000-1.600 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Informa suggests the national corn yield is 182.1 bpa leading to a crop size of 14.890 billion bu. – this would suggest harvested acres are 81.768 million vs. the USDA at 81.770 million
Quietly firm but honoring the recent highs. Weekly export sales were solid once again. I get the impression the corn market is in a “wait & see” mode. We’re waiting to see how the forecasted excessive rains develop this weekend and beyond (as to its impact on the harvest ready crop) as well as waiting to see what the USDA will have to say on the 11th. I’ve yet to see the results of the different news wires polls but as of this writing I would think most expect to see a higher carryin (suggested by last week’s Quarterly Stocks report) and a slight bump up in yield. My question is whether or not the USDA will hike demand (export) enough to offset the higher supply. Currently weekly export sales are running 7.6 M T. ahead of last year’s pace.
Most interior cash corn markets (basis) are running steady to higher. I say most as Council Bluffs is running 2 cents easier. The higher locations are Decatur, IL (15 cents higher since Monday), Savanna, IL (18 cents higher since Monday), Seneca, IL (3 cents higher) and Davenport, IA (4 cents higher). The Gulf appears to be creeping higher as well. With all of this corn spreads inch tighter.
So – do we continue to sit like we’ve had for the past few days? Daily corn charts are starting to develop a “struggling” look due to the past three days of sitting at current levels while weekly charts suggest the want to go higher. Weekly charts will look pretty good with weekly closes above $3.74-$3.75.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/05
Dec Corn: $3.64 – $3.74
March Corn: $3.76 – $3.86
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