Dec Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.62 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.74 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.87 ¾)
Nov Chgo Ethanol closes $0.002 cents a gallon higher ($1.320), Dec unchanged ($1.338)
Flat price corn continues to ease from recent interim highs. Pre-report positioning, weakness elsewhere in the Ag markets and a firestorm in equities all worked to limit any market-making buying interest in the corn market on Wednesday. For what it is worth the trade is expecting to see yield increase by 0.5 bpa, production increasing by 45 million bu. and US carryout increasing by 145 million bu. The higher than expected Quarterly Stocks figure from Sept 28th suggests the previously stated 2017-18 carryout was light by 130-140 million bu. With this said it’s the higher carryin that boosts the carryout guess so much. If there is a wild card in the USDA data it will be a boost to exports. Until SA comes on line in late winter, early spring the US will be the corn market to the world.
The interior corn basis continues with its recent steady to higher trend. Producer movement remains minimal considering the time frame. Harvest is at a standstill from western Illinois west from recent inundating rains. The Gulf continues to scratch and claw its way higher. Despite the steady to higher basis levels corn spreads are easing. I have to think the easing spreads is more in response to the flat price selling vs. anything else.
Price charts don’t know we have a big report tomorrow. With that said the daily price charts are hinting at rolling over from our recent interim highs. We do have a “however” here – the shorter term inter-day charts are suggesting we don’t have to sell current levels. In other words the shorter term charts are suggesting we may have corrected enough ahead of the USDA data.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/11
Dec Corn: $3.55 – $3.70 (?)
March Corn: $3.67 – $3.82 (?)
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