Dec closes 4 ¼ cents higher ($3.41 ½), March 4 cents higher ($3.49 ¼) and July 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.63 ½)
December Chgo Ethanol closes 1.0 cent a gallon higher (1.531), Jan 0.9 cent higher (1.470)
After the recent days of weakness flat price corn goes into a consolidation mode in the form of some minor backing and filling to the upside. The primary catalyst was the strength in the crude oil market (+$2.50 bbl.). The US Dollar continues to be strong but as I have explained in recent days US corn is currently the market to the world and will be until SA origin comes online in late winter, early spring. I don’t think the corn market is going anywhere of substance – we need to keep a bit of a SA weather premium in the market in case things turn sour down there (currently looking pretty good). This should act as some left-handed support when prices reach a state of oversold (in this case short term). Resistance will continue to be the imbalance of too much supply vs. not enough demand.
For the most part interior corn basis continues in the steady to higher mode. I say the “most part” as Illinois River bids have softened over the past tow days but that appears to be due to the continued easing at the Gulf. Higher than expected freight rates for this time of year keeps Gulf bids on the defensive. Spreads continue to inch in (fractionally) as movement slows. From my experience some of the season’s best basis quotes will be seen in mid-December.
The daily trend still reads higher but the rate of descent is definitely slowing. So far I still believe rallies are supposed to be sold. Where the market held today and Monday, against the $3.35 level (Dec) suggests the market at best is a trading range affair.
Daily Support & Resistance Dec Corn: $3.38 – $3.46
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