Dec Chgo Wheat closes 2 cents lower ($3.97), March 4 ½ cents lower ($4.14 ¼) and July 4 cents lower ($4.42 ¾)
Dec KC Wheat closes 4 ½ cents lower ($4.03 ½), March 4 ¾ cents lower ($4.20 ¾) and July 4 ½ cents lower ($4.44)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 400600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
European wheat prices move higher citing the lower Euro FX. US wheat prices (Chgo and KC) move lower citing the strong US Dollar. Algeria bought 580 K T. of wheat overnight – traders thinking it will be some sort of mix between US, German and Baltic origin. If US origin is involved most think it would be HRW – price action suggests nada.
I see no changes in the interior cash wheat markets. It has been weeks since there have been any meaningful changes. The export market for SRW continues to be quiet and has been so for some time now. The “whys and wherefores” behind the spread action in Chgo is beyond me. Last week the nearby Dec/March looked like it was going to give us a buy signal and then failed. Yesterday this spread was
rather ugly looking and then today it comes in noticeably (it was the primary feature in the Chgo market). The export market for HRW is holding on to its recent gains. I thought for a minute it might involve the recent Algerian business – unfortunately the flat price action suggests otherwise. KC spreads do show some fractional improvement.
Needless to say the US wheat markets (sans Mpls) has a hard time sustaining day-to-day rallies. We remain within shouting distance of October lows and contract lows. Weekly export sales are out in the morning – in recent weeks their impact has been minimal. I have to think we will continue to take our cue from outside markets. Do you still believe that the flat price wheat trade for Chgo and KC is still a trading affair?
Daily Support & Resistance Dec Chgo Wheat: $3.92 ($3.87) – $4.02 ($4.06) Dec KC Wheat: $3.97 ($3.95) – $4.09 ($4.13)
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