Jan soybeans close 3 ¾ cents higher ($9.89 ½), March 4 cents higher ($9.98 ½) and July 5 ½ cents higher ($10.14)
Dec Meal closes $3.1 higher ($311.5), Jan $3.1 higher ($313.8) and March $3.5 higher ($316.5)
Dec Bean Oil closes 40 pts lower ($33.70), Jan 40 pts lower ($33.96) and March 40 pts lower ($34.21)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 1.418 M T. old crop vs. 1.200-1.500 M T. expected; 0.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 437.4 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected; no new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 10-40 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected
Informa suggests planted soybean acreage for next year will be 88.612 million acres vs. 83.7 last season
The flat price trade in the soybean and soybean meal markets were very similar to what we saw in corn – they tried to break the market early, got no follow through so short covering ensued. Weekly export sales were solid for soybeans and above expectations for soybean meal. Soybean oil tried to trade with a rebounding palm market but fell victim to meal/oil spreading; bean oil finishes on its lows for the day. Volatility remains nothing to write home about. The weather in SA is okay for now. Recent forecasts for SA suggest a drying trend is in the offing. Recent rainfall has been sufficient enough to handle some short term drying. Once again similar to the corn market I think the bean and meal markets are going nowhere fast; at least not without some uncertainty developing. Any uncertainty at this point would have to be SA weather. For what it is worth the Informa suggestion for higher acreage next year is old news. The current corn/soybean price ratio supports the idea for increased soybean acreage next year. Overall the bean & meal markets appear to be trading affairs – they will hold together until the SA crop is further along and resistance will come from the current imbalance of too much US supply vs. not enough demand.
Like corn most interior soybean basis bids show a higher bias. The gulf is mostly steady at or near recent low levels. Despite the minor flat price rally bear spreads remain in control. The same holds true for the meal market – a minor flat price rally with spreads staying flat to lower. Offers to sell cash meal remain on the down low.
Once again – just like corn – the trend is still lower but the rate of descent is slowing. The soybean chart shows a minor upflagging effort following last Friday’s big break. The meal chart looks similar. Bean oil continues with its recent liquidation phase but I believe it is coming into support. I don’t think I would want to press Dec bean oil below the $33.50 level.
Jan Beans: $9.84 – $9.99 ($10.03) Dec Meal; $309.0 – $314.5 Dec Bn Oil: $33.45 – $34.20
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