Dec Chgo Wheat closes 9 cents lower ($3.71 ½), March 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.95 ½) and July 7 ¼ cents lower ($4.24)
Dec KC Wheat closes 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.84), March 7 ¼ cents lower ($4.03) and July 6 ½ cents lower ($4.26 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 483.5 K T. old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – 7.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Wednesday we saw the KC market have big deliveries (814); Chgo had barely a handful (2). Today it was the Chgo markets turn to have big deliveries (901) and KC’s deliveries from yesterday continue to circulate (810). With these sizes of deliveries flying around it suggests the commercial doesn’t need them for the near term. Weekly export sales were within the realm of expectations but nothing special. The Southern Hemisphere’ harvest is starting and Australia in particular is thought to have a much bigger crop than what the USDA alluded to last month. I’m being told they have the same problem the US had this past season – the lack of high protein. So here we have a good portion
of the World’s exporting nations with lo-pro wheat. No wonder the Mpls market (hi-pro) is divorcing itself from the Chgo and KC markets.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The SRW basis locations that I follow are now either basis March or basis July. I have to think the locations that went basis July ae not expecting much business any time soon. I doubt we are going to see any producer movement anytime soon given current price levels but then again business is not much to write home about. Spreads stay wide in both Chgo and KC.
Another round of new contract lows, new contract low closes in both KC and Chgo and technically we are not really oversold at least on a daily basis. The 14-day RSI for March Chgo wheat is 29 and for March KC wheat 30. Interday indicators show some modest extremes of oversold but that can be alleviated with modestly higher prices in the night session. As of this writing the weekly charts suggest we can challenge the August lows – $3.59 Chgo wheat and $3.67 KC wheat. Tomorrow’s Friday – it would not surprise me to see some short covering given the beating these markets have taken this week.
Daily Support & Resistance March Chgo Wheat: $3.90 – $4.03 March KC Wheat: $3.98 – $4.10
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