Dec Chgo Wheat closes ¼ cent higher ($3.89 ½), March 1 ½ cents lower ($4.06 ¾) and July ¾ cent lower ($4.32 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closes 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.87), March 3 ½ cents lower ($4.05) and July 3 ½ cents lower ($4.29)
Poor blanket-blank wheat!! The US wheat markets , Chgo and KC, just can’t get anything going on the upside. The make-up of the market remains almost grossly short with the spec participation. Fears that world wheat supplies are growing now that the S. Hemisphere is beginning its harvest. The other day it was Australia reporting a much bigger crop vs. previous ideas and today it was Canada coming in with a crop that was 1.0 M T. greater than expected. I know that doesn’t sound like much but a case can be made that world production could increase by 5.0 M T. on Friday’s USDA supply-demand update. Not much change is expected for the US carryout projection.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet as do the export markets. The only category that changes if for hi-pro wheat and that has been grinding higher. This is why the Mpls market carries such a hefty premium to Chgo and KC. Wheat spreads in Chgo ran softer with the renewed flat price selling. KC spreads remain quiet but wide.
Flat price wheat struggles just to consolidate after seeing new contract lows last week. Tuesday saw a challenge of first level minor resistance and the market turned tail. I’m guessing one keeps selling this market until it gets too painful. What’s too painful – a sharp degree of oversold which we are not at yet. For what it is worth buy stops should be accumulating above $4.12 in March KC and above $4.14 in March Chgo.
Daily Support & Resistance March Chgo Wheat: $4.000 – $4.14 March KC Wheat: $4.01 (?) – $4.11
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