Dec Chgo Wheat closes 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.10), March 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.27 ¾) and July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.57 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closes 1 ½ cents lower ($4.10), March 2 cents lower ($4.27 ¾) and July 2 cents lower ($4.51 ½)
Weekly Export Inspections – 494.2 K T. vs. 300500 K T. expected
Weekly export inspections were deemed just okay. We saw some beneficial moisture over the weekend in parts of central southern Plains. Not all of the driest areas saw this moisture. The strength of the US dollar was cited as a bearish influence despite US origin staying somewhat competitive with the World exporting competition. Making a long story short – the US wheat futures’ markets continue to be trading range affairs. The USDA supply-demand report on Wednesday for the US wheat markets is not expected to show much in the way of changes. Trade ideas for the US carryout have it increasing by 3 million bu. and the world carryout declining by about 500 K T.
The trade is expecting to see the winter wheat crop now 92% planted. The USDA suggests 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted vs. its norm of 92%. The USDA goes on to say emergence of the recently planted crop is at 79% vs. its norm of 78%. The condition of the crop is expected to be unchanged at 58% GE. The USDA says the condition of the crop is 58% GE (unch), 33% Fair (unch) and 9% P-VP.
Cash markets for the different wheat varieties remain quiet whether it be for domestic us or for export. Chgo spreads ran unchanged Dec to march while carries increased to the deferred contracts. KC spreads showed fractional improvement involving the Dec contract while the March forward ran unchanged but still wide.
Trading range, trading range – I’m not sure anything more needs to be said. Fading short term inter-day extremes continues to be the best MO for trading the US wheat markets.
Daily Support & Resistance Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.06 – $4.18 Dec KC Wheat: $4.05 – $4.18
Information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.