Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 1 ½ cents lower ($3.38 ½), Dec unchanged ($3.51 ½) and March unchanged ($3.63 ¾)
October Chgo Ethanol closes 0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.563), Nov 0.009 cents higher ($1.508)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.047 million bpd vs. 1.060 previous week – Stocks – 21.1 million bbls vs. 21.1 previous week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop (2017/18) vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected
Follow through short covering through the first half of the session – sagging back to unchanged for the latter part of the session. I get the impression that many in the trade still don’t want to believe the USDA yield but it has to be noted that the short covering we saw that started late yesterday and into the first half of today was stopped dead in its tracks at the first challenge of minor resistance (mid-$3.50’s). FSA yesterday afternoon released the latest acreage totals that are enrolled in government programs. As of August 31st 87.258 million corn acres were enrolled vs. USDA ideas of 90.9 million planted. Normally by this date the spread is a bit wider; tightening as we move through future reporting periods. This could possibly suggest planted acreage totals may have been understated by a small amount. I’m not totally sure of this as I have to rely on others for this type of information/analysis. My bottomline, however, is that I don’t the corn market is going anywhere fast as long as we are looking at a carryout of 2.3 billion bu.
Interior cash corn markets continue to show a defensive posture as most await the onslaught of harvest. The Gulf remains nothing to write home about. Corn spreads ran steady to fractional improvements. Overall corn spreads remain relatively wide suggesting a more that ample supply.
Okay – yesterday the flat price held contract lows on the break and rallied but today the rally was stopped dead in its tracks at the first challenge of recently established minor resistance. I would like to say we are moving into another trading range affair at lower levels. If I’m wrong it would be because we are looking at new lows.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/14
Dec Corn: $3.44 (?) – $3.57
March Corn: $3.57 (?) – $3.69
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