Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes ¼ cent higher ($3.53 ¾), March ½ cent higher ($3.666 ½) and July ¼ cent higher ($3.81 ¾)
October Chgo Ethanol closes 0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.527), Nov 0.007 cents higher ($1.495)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 738.7 K T. vs. 700-900 K T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Rating & Progress – 61% GE (unch) vs. 60% expected vs. 74% year ago – 51% Mature vs. 64% 5-year average – 11% Harvested vs. 14% expected vs. 17% 5-year average
Flat price corn appears dead in the water as its daily price range was not even 4 cents. At one point in the day it tried to rally with the wheat market; later in the day it tried to trade with the lower soybean market. The end result was a fractionally higher finish. Harvest is now upon us and yield reports continue to be variable vs. last year. The recent hot and dry weather in the central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt has really helped the crop to speed to maturity. Areas that were near harvest ready one week ago has seen some noticeable dry-down allowing producers to cut back on potential drying charges. On Friday the USDA will update corn quarterly stocks; this basically sets last year’s carry-out. A traders’ survey from Bloomberg News suggests the stocks’ will be 2.346 billion bu. vs. 2.350 billion bu. suggested by the USDA on September 12th.
The interior cash corn markets (with a couple of exceptions) are running steady to lower. River locations that feed to the Gulf are noticeably lower in part to higher freight prices as well as the onset of harvest. Corn spreads continue to be soft looking as spread prices hover at or just above contract lows.
Until we can get a better assessment of national yields it looks like the corn market will stay in locked in a minor trading range affair. It needs to be noted, however, that the major downtrend that started in mid-July has been violated and corn prices are now sitting above that trendline. If we can see a close above Friday’s high, $3.56 ¼, it would suggest a challenge of the minor trading range high of $3.61. A close below $3.49 would suggest a challenge of the trading range low of $3.44 ¼.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/26
Dec Corn: $3.48 – $3.59
March Corn: $3.61 – $3.72
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