Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary

Dec Corn closes 1 ½ cents lower ($3.52 ¼), March 1 ½ cents lower ($3.65 ¼) and July ¾ cent lower ($3.81)

October Chgo Ethanol closes unchanged ($1.527), Nov 0.008 cents a gallon lower ($1.487)

US corn futures see a two-sided trade on Tuesday finishing with minor losses. The day’s highs came shortly after the day session opened as corn tried to trade with higher wheat prices but mid-morning the rally attempt faded. One of the rationales for the rally is that the corn crop is behind on its average maturity rates. I have to think the crop will catch up rather quickly given the recent hot and dry we have seen in the central and eastern Corn Belt. Early yield results continue to be variable but not enough for the trade to say the latest yield estimate from the USDA is that far off base. Widening spreads continue to tell us we have an imbalance of supply vs. demand. On Friday the USDA will remind us of a more than ample carryin which at this point offsets any talk of a lower yield. Adding to the imbalance of supply/demand is the intense export competition we are having with SA. My bottomline at this time is that I cannot come up good rationale, technically or fundamentally, for ownership.

Interior cash corn markets are stabilizing if not retracing their recent sell-off. Most of this comes from slow farmer selling of cash corn as most producers are focusing on selling recently harvested cash soybeans. Freight rates have been rising in recent days due to low draft levels stemming from the lack of rain in the central and eastern Corn Belt. Corn spreads are at their widest levels of the year.

For the time being I’m not looking past a trading affair between $3.44 and $3.61 (Dec)

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/27

Dec Corn: $3.48 – $3.56

March Corn: $3.61 – $3.69

 

 

 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.