Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes ½ cent higher ($3.48 ¼), March ¼ cent higher ($3.61 ¼) and July ¼ cent higher ($3.77 ½)
December Chgo Ethanol closes 0.022 cents a gallon lower ($1.446), Jan 0.014 lower ($1.420)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.057 million bpd vs. 1.056 week ago – Stocks – 21.3 million bbls vs. 21.5 million week ago
It was another slow day for corn trading all the while remaining range bound. The lows of the day were made relatively early pressured by declining wheat prices. The balance of the day was spent trading at unchanged give or take fractionally higher to fractionally lower. Support continues to come from the idea that the spec trade is a rather large short. Unfortunately we don’t have anything to challenge them with at this time. Maybe the USDA can give us something tomorrow. The trade is looking for a modestly higher production/carryout figure. My idea is that we have enough domestic demand to offset a modestly higher production figure. My biggest fear is that the trading range we have been in since early September continues into the end of the year.
Interior cash corn markets read steady to better at 11 out of 12 locations that I follow. The most notable increases are occurring with Midwest processors and river locations that deal with export. The Gulf is creeping higher touting slow producer sales. Today is the second day of the index fund roll with little evidence that it is happening as spreads are showing a steady to fractionally higher bias.
Can the USDA give us anything that will pop us out of the 10 week trading range affair? My worst case is the trading range continues. If there is a surprise my bias is bullish. Why bullish – it is my opinion that the spec trade is just too short.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/09
Dec Corn: $3.45 – $3.54
March Corn: $3.58 – $3.67
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.