Corn Commentary
March Corn closes ½ cent lower ($3.52), July unchanged ($3.69) and Dec unchanged ($3.85)
February Chgo CBOT Ethanol closes 0.008 cents lower ($1.324), March 0.003 cents lower ($1.354)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 668.9 K T. vs. 800 K – 1.050 M T. expected
Flat price corn remains dead in the water. Suspected interim resistance, $3.55-$3.56 March, was challenged in the early going ($3.54 ½) but failed to follow through. Inter-market spreading vs. the rest of the Ag complex (wheat & beans) as well as what looked like some modest cash movement kept this market under wraps. Weekly export inspections were feeble at best. Weather concerns for the primary corn growing regions in Argentina fell on deaf ears despite buoying soybeans and soybean meal. The amount of spec shorts in the corn market remains supportive when the market tries to sell off but not enough to provide follow through strength.
Interior cash corn prices have a mixed look. Processors show the best bids while locations involved for export appear softer. The Gulf basis has been showing an easing trend of late. Corn spreads ran fractionally softer within the current crop year as well as old crop runs unchanged to fractionally softer vs. the new crop.
As of this writing my worst case scenario for the corn market is that it stays stuck in a trading affair; $3.45 to $3.55 basis March. It looks like we’ll have to see more a threat to the Argentine corn crop for this market to breach the $3.55-$3.56 interim resistance level. If and when that is done we’ll talk about the suspected resistance at the $3.60-$3.61 level.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/23
March Corn: $3.49 – $3.55 ($3.57)
July Corn: $3.66 – $3.72 ($3.74)
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