Corn Commentary
March Corn closes ½ cent higher ($3.67 ¼), July ½ cent higher ($3.82 ½) and Dec ½ cent higher ($3.96 ½)
March Chgo Ethanol 0.038 cents a gallon higher ($1.454), April 0.034 cents higher ($1.468)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.016 million bpd vs. 1.057 million one week ago – Stocks – 22.9 Million bbls vs. 23.5 million one week ago
USDA announces 123.0 K T. of corn sold to unknown
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-1.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Flat price hangs tough up against its recent highs. For what it is worth nearby corn values registered new high closes for the rally that started in mid-January. Demand from all sectors, fundamental and technical, keeps the market alive. US Corn is still the market to the World. We know Brazil has a smaller corn crop this not only from its 1st season crop but the idea is that we’ll see a smaller 2nd season corn crop. 1st season corn harvest is just getting underway. The planting of 2nd season corn is slow due to a slower than normal soybean harvest. Concerns over Argentina’s growing season lend support when the corn’s flat price tries to sell off.
I’ve been gone for 4 days and the corn basis, both interior and for export, show a defensive look. That would suggests we have seen a fair amount of corn move while the nearby lingers in the mid $3.60’s. Despite a defensive looking cash market corn spreads continue to inch in. I say “inch in” as the improvements have come fractionally.
Recent attempts to break the flat price have been a lesson in frustration for those wanting to be bearish. Implied volatility continues to creep higher suggesting a bit of unknown (SA crop size) is supporting the market. I don’t think the corn market is going to get into a racing type mode similar to soybeans and soybean meal but should continue to favor the grinding type mode higher.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/15
March Corn: $3.63 – $3.71
July Corn: $3.78 – $3.86
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