Corn Commentary
March closes 2 ½ cents lower ($3.63 ¾), July 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.78) and Dec 3 cents lower ($3.90 ¾)
Feb Chgo Ethanol closes 2.0 cents a gallon higher ($1.461), March 1.9 cents higher ($1.487)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.370 M T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 21.0 K T. new crop 0-75 K T. expected
Flat price corn continues to honor the trading range affair despite better than expected weekly export sales. I found it interesting that the flat price could only trade fractionally higher on the day before giving way. The news wires will talk about ongoing concerns with the renewable fuels program as well as previously established trade agreements. I do think we saw some inter-market spreading; long wheat/short corn. Overall this spread has gone nowhere fast. The weather in SA is cooperating; suggesting the potential is still there for a decent sized, if not large, corn crop.
The interior corn basis gives me a mixed look. The Ohio River is trending lower, Chgo has been flat steady since the beginning of the New Year as has Decatur, IN, Lincoln, NE, and Cedar Rapids, IA. Decatur, IL has been trending easier. Illinois River locations trade all over the place; some days easier, some days better. The Gulf market has been easing over the past few days but still better vs. where it was at the beginning of the New Year. Corn spreads don’t do a whole lot; call them fractionally better on the day.
On Tuesday flat price corn pumps out a suggestive interim sell signal. Wednesday’s trade showed a reluctance to follow through to the downside but did not negate the suggestive sell signal. Thursday was an inside day of Wednesday. So what does it all mean – the interim sell signal remains intact and this is occurring at the suspected topside of the months old trading range affair.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/27
March Corn: $3.61 ($3.58) – $3.68
July Corn: $3.75 ($3.72) – $3.82
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