Corn Commentary
May corn closes 7 ¾ cents lower ($3.75), July 7 ¾ cents lower ($3.83 ¼) and Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($3.97 ½)
April Chgo Ethanol closes 0.030 cents a gallon higher (1.463), May 0.031 cents lower ($1.485)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.409 M T. vs. 1.200-1.500 M T. expected
Weekend rain in Buenos Aries (more psychological than anything else as it is thought the corn crop has been set), what appears to be a good start to the Brazilian 2nd season corn crop, the EU threatening to levy an import tax on US imported corn (800 K T. open/undelivered) and dramatic weakness elsewhere throughout the Ag complex has the corn market erasing gains dating back to February 23rd. It was just last Tuesday July corn made a high at $4.02 ¾, closing today at $3.83 ¼). Adding to all of this was Friday’s Commitment of Traders report suggesting the spec is long 266.7 K contracts of corn as of March 13th. It was just 2 months ago the Commitment of Traders report suggested the spec was short 258 K. contracts of corn – a swing of 524.7 contracts.
The recent slide in the interior corn basis appears to be over as locations have either stabilized and/or showing improvements. Cash corn movement has come to a halt with the slide in the futures’ market. The Gulf is also showing stabilization and/or improvement. Corn spreads, however, are not reflecting the goings on the cash markets due to the flat price liquidation. The July/Dec corn spread, always a good indication of demand, has slid from near 8 cents under just 5 days ago to 14 cents under today.
“Fibo” numbers to look at for possible support – July corn: $3.82 ½ (50% retracement), $3.77 5/8 (61.8% retracement) and $3.72 1/8 (75% retracement)
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/20
May Corn: $3.70 – $3.81
July Corn: $3.78 – $3.89
Dec Corn: $3.92 – $4.03
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.