Corn Commentary
May corn closed½ cent lower ($3.86), July ½ cent lower ($3.95 ¼) and Dec ¾ cent lower ($4.11 ½)
May Chgo Ethanol closed 0.007 cents a gallon lower (1.465), June 0.009 cents lower ($1.461)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 697.1 K T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.200 M T. expected – -76.6 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Monday, April 30th, is 1st Notice Day for May Corn Deliveries
Flat price corn goes into a minor consolidation mode (very minor backing and filling) just below Wednesday’s interim high. Weekly export sales were deemed disappointing vs. expectations. I have to note that the recent rally has not been about demand but more about the timeliness of planting. We should see a fair amount or work done over the next number of days; into mid next week. The latter half of next week will feature another rain event. I’ve seen amounts being forecasted ranging from ½ inch to 1-2 inches depending upon location. Late in the weekend temps should warm to more seasonable levels.
Interior corn basis levels have gone “mixed” vs. what was posted on Wednesday. Processors continue to post a better basis while selected river locations appear to easing just a bit. I think the mixed postings at the different river locations are all about who needs corn vs. who doesn’t. the Gulf market did show some easing last night. I have to think Wednesday’s rally did prompt some corn to move but not at all locations. Spreads within the old crop ran steady while still being wide. 1st notice day is Monday so liquidation ahead of that is responsible. Old crop did gain fractionally on the new crop; I think that is in response to the idea we are going to get some corn planted over the next number of days. Overall corn spreads, whether it’s old/old or old/new, stays relatively wide.
We are a futures market so we are always looking ahead. I have to think most feel we will get some corn planted up to mid next week but then again we see another rain event. That rain event limits losses on Thursday. Until we can get a bigger picture as to the timeliness of this year’s corn planting prices should remain relatively firm. Forecasts will remain in the forefront of discussion.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/27
July Corn: $3.91 – $3.99
Dec Corn: $4.08 – $4.14
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.