Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary

May corn closed unchanged ($3.94 ¾), July ¾ cent lower ($4.02) and Dec unchanged ($4.19 ½)

June Chgo Ethanol closed 0.003 cents a gallon lower ($1.476), July 0.001 cents lower ($1.481)

CONAB – Brazil Corn Production – 89.20 M T. (26.26+62.94) vs. 88.61 M T. April (25.60+63.01)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 695.6 K T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 90.0 K T. new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Highlights of the USDA Supply-Demand Report – US Old Crop – they left all data unchanged from April – World Old Crop – Lowered the projected carryout by 2.93 M T. due to a decrease of the carryin by 3.37 M T. – US New Crop – the lower crop size of 564 million bu. pretty much says it all, carryout was down 500 million bu. vs. the past year – World New Crop – increased World production by 20.0 M T., Increased total usage by 22.6 M T., lowered China carryout by 19.05 M T.

Initially there was some bewilderment as to why the corn market could not hold the rally. Once the trade realized a good portion of the World carryout decrease was due to China flat price corn eased off. Sagging wheat prices as well as the soybean and soybean meal market’s inability to sustain their rally eventually weighed on corn prices. Where do we go from here – back to watching the weather!! Recent forecasts are showing a warm and wet bias for most areas on the Corn Belt.

Interior river corn cash prices run mixed on the day as some read steady but firm while other locations are a touch easier. Processor bids run steady to better. Gulf prices show a firm bias. Corn spreads, July forward, ran steady to fractionally easier. I can’t imagine there is much cash corn moving out there. Old crop weekly export sales continue to be decent while new crop sales were paltry at best.

Old crop corn’s flat price action leaves a lot to be desired as recent highs were challenged and the rally could not hold. New crop corn saw new highs for the current rally but it too could not hold. The bottom line to the price action is that it looks very suspect at this point. Going forward it will all come down to the weather. Will the crop get planted in a near timely fashion?

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/11

July Corn: $3.98 ($3.95) – $4.06 (?)

Dec Corn: $4.14 ($4.12) – $4.22 (?)

 

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