Corn Commentary
July Corn closed 3 cents lower ($3.99 ¼), Sept 3 cents lower ($4.07 ½) & Dec 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.17)
June Chgo Ethanol closed 0.020 cents a gallon lower ($1.471), July 0.017 cents higher ($1.483)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
On Tuesday old crop corn led the market higher – today old crop corn led the market lower. On Tuesday the trade (specs) wanted to tout wetter forecasts for the areas that have been lagging with their corn planting. The reality is those areas are/will be planting corn before the next weather system moves in. A terribly weak soybean complex added to the lower corn prices as did inter-market spreading – the unwinding of short wheat/long corn inter-market spreads. Just how much corn gets planted before the latest NWS’s forecasts kick in will be key to the short term direction of corn prices.
Yesterday when old crop corn was leading the way higher my assumption was stronger cash markets not only in the interior but for export as well. Interior cash corn markets read mixed although some river locations do read higher (not all). The export market is not firmer but rather softer. Corn spreads ran steady with in the crop year while bear spreads were working old crop to new crop. The inability of corn spreads to sustain attempts to improve act as a reminder we have the corn to meet the current demand.
So – is the corn market in the process of making a top or are we moving into a trading range affair. Daily momentum indicators suggest we have a downwards bias. Since the rally started in January we have seen corrections of 20 cents and 14 cents. Last Thursday’s high to Monday’s low was roughly 12 cents. Closes below $4.12 (Dec) are going to have many thinking a top. Interim trendline support just happens to come in at $4.12. Today’s trade, challenging suspected resistance and then selling should have many thinking twice about chasing another rally without weather support.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/17
July Corn: $3.94 – $4.03
Dec Corn: $4.12 – $4.20
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.