Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 7 ½ cents higher ($3.67), July 7 ¼ cents higher ($3.74 ½) and Dec 6 ½ cents higher ($3.91)
May Chgo Ethanol closes 2.2 cents a gallon higher ($1.651), June 1.7 cents higher ($1.625)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.170 M T. vs. 1.300-1.600 M T. expected
USDA announces 101.6 K T. old crop corn sold to unknown
US Corn Planted week ending 4/09 – 3% vs. 4% last year vs. 3% average – trade was expecting 4% planted
Flat price corn rallied sharply one week ago Thursday, Friday. The next 4 days was spent correcting that rally. Today, Monday, flat price recouped a good portion of that correction. The old crop led the way on stronger cash markets while the new crop followed to a lesser extent buoyed by fears of less than timely planting. The latest forecasts suggest 3-4 days of drying followed by 1-2 days of drying. It seems this pattern of weather will be with us for a good portion of April.
As I mentioned a bit ago many interior cash corn markets have a firm bias mostly from a lack of movement coupled with decent demand from the export sector as well as from the ethanol sector. The gulf market reads steady to firm from early last week. Corn spreads were fractionally firm within the current crop. Old crop gains noticeably on the new crop. The corn spread action today was particularly notable given we are in the midst of the big boy index fund roll.
The broader technical view suggests the corn market remains a trading range affair. The shorter term look has recently established interim support holding. Today’s (Monday) rally suggests resistance testing will be near at hand. Tomorrow (Tuesday) we will get all sorts of old crop updates. Conab will update the size of the Brazilian corn crop and the USDA will update the US old crop carryover as well as the world old crop carryover. The old crop projections will be nothing short of LARGE.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/11
July Corn: $3.69 – $3.78
Dec Corn: $3.86 – $3.94
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