Corn Commentary


Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 7 cents higher ($3.65 ¼), July 7 ¼ cents higher ($3.73 ¾) and Dec 6 ½ cents higher ($3.91 ½)
June Chgo Ethanol closes 1.0 cents a gallon higher ($1.461), July 1.6 cents higher ($1.474)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.006 million bpd vs. 986 K last week – Stocks – 23.1 million bbls vs. 23.2 last week – a higher grind along with better usage
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected
Highlights of USDA Corn Supply-Demand Report – US Old Crop – lowered carryout by 25 million bu. due to increase in domestic usage – US New Crop – ending stocks 12 million bu. less than expected – World Old Crop – increased carryout by 920 K T. – World New Crop – carryout comes in 14.45 M T. less than expected and down 28.6 M T. vs. the current old crop carryout.
The new crop world carryout projection carries corn futures on Wednesday. One has to go back to Sept/Oct of 2015 to find a projected carryout this small. Given the idea that the spec is a noticeably sized short their short covering made the market once this data was released. Now that we have these numbers out of the way for at least one month focus will be all about getting the crop planted in a timely manner and up out of the ground in good shape. Going forward weather forecasts suggest we will get the crop planted albeit a shade later than what many would like.
Cash markets continue to show a mixed look depending upon locations. Where flood waters have receded basis levels appear a bit easier – this goes along with Gulf values as they too are receding. Processors continue to show the best bids. Spreads firmed with old crop leading – this has to be reflecting the spec short covering.
The technical look, simply put, suggests our months’ old trading range affair lives on. Once again the market appears to be in line to test interim resistance levels ($3.79-$3.80 July & $3.95-$3.96 Dec). If and when those are taken out we’ll look at the early March highs which are another 8-10 cents above the outlined interim resistance levels. I have to think the downside (mid-April lows) is secure until we know more about the crop.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/11
July Corn: $3.68 ½ – $3.69
Dec Corn: $3.86 ½ – $3.96


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