Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.67), Sept 6 ¾ cents lower ($3.75) and Dec 6 ¾ cents lower ($3.85 ¾)
June Chgo Ethanol closes 0.5 cents a gallon lower ($1.515), July 0.6 cents lower ($1.531)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.194 M T. vs. 950 K – 1.250 M T. expected
Corn Crop Progress/Conditions – 91% planted vs. 92% expected vs. 93% 5-year average – 73% emerged vs. 75% 5-year average – 65% GE vs. 68% expected vs. 72% year ago
Past weekend weather was expected to be overly wet 2 out of 3 days – weekend weather occurred with a much drier bias. Following this week’s forecasted rain event private forecasters going forward suggest/hint at slightly warming temps along with a drier bias. All of this had the corn market down relatively hard on Tuesday all the while staying in its months’ old trading range affair.
Interior cash corn markets added insult to injury on Tuesday. If not unchanged they were lower; especially along the river systems that are involved for export. The Gulf basis eased to its lowest posting for the spring season. Spreads involving the July contract edged a ½ cent lower while the Sept forward spreads ran unchanged while hovering at or just above contract lows. The July led losses, I think, are in part to smaller index funds rolling forward.
Despite what could be perceived as a poor day in the corn futures market we are still in the same trading range we have been in for months. After seeing the first crop ratings of the season, just 65% GE, I have to think it will support the idea of the trading range going forward. Granted it’s early in the season but until the trade sees actual crop improvements these ratings should lend support. For what it is worth – last week Illinois corn was rated 51% GE, currently 52%, Iowa currently 73% GE (-2%) and Minnesota 68% GE (-16%)
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/31
July Corn: $3.64 – $3.72
Dec Corn: $3.83 – $3.91
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.