Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 4 cents lower ($3.81), Sept 3 ½ cents lower ($3.85) and Dec 3½ cents lower ($3.95 ½)
July Chgo Ethanol closes 0.017 cents a gallon lower ($1.549), August 0.015 cents a gallon lower ($1.550)
The Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.002 million bpd vs. 999 K last week – Stocks – 22.5 million bbls vs. 22.0 last week.
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected
Flat price corn trades higher overnight and then sells off during day. Yes, I think fading wheat prices had some impact but I think the bigger rationale for the selling was out of respect for the rain that moved through Iowa overnight into the day and the forecasts for possibly/potentially more over the next few days. The system that moved through Iowa was shifting north as it hit the River. Pop-up storms were being noted through Illinois as I write this. Also noting that next week sees cooler/normal temps but with a drier bias.
Interior river locations see a better basis on Wednesday unchanged elsewhere. The Gulf appears to continue inching higher from lows we saw last week. July loses to Sept forward while Sept forward ran mostly unchanged. It is noted that the current crop year, 1017-18, did lose ground to the new crop, 2018-19. Overall corn spreads continue to be relatively wide.
Flat price corn retreats back to what I think is the topside of a decent looking support area. Whether or not the mid-low $3.90’s hold (December) is contingent on weather developments over the next 3-4 days. This could set the stage for another “high anxiety” Sunday night trade.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/15
July Corn: $3.72 – $3.82
Dec Corn: $3.91 – $4.01
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