Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 5 ¼ cents lower ($3.70), Sept 5 ¼ cents lower ($3.78) and Dec 5 ¼ cents lower ($3.88)
July Chgo Ethanol closes 0.028 cents a gallon lower ($1.522), August 0.025 cents a gallon lower ($1.530)
Monday night saw flat price corn try to move higher from crop ratings not as good as expected along with higher wheat prices only to fail to new lows for the current sell-off during the day on Tuesday. Weather forecasts appear non-threatening into the end of the month. Last week’s chatter about a high pressure ridge moving in at month’s end, early July, has been noticeably absent. One has to understand that the run-up earlier this month was due to weather fears and spec short covering. Last week’s moisture through many parts of the Corn Belt put some of those weather fears on the back burner, at least for now.
The recent break in the flat price has firmed the corn basis to the processor as movement has slowed dramatically vs. what we saw 1 ½ weeks ago. The river basis appears mixed as some locations are bid as others remain in a retreat mode. Nearby corn spreads ran unchanged on the day while the 3 nearby contracts lost ground to the March forward. I think that was a result of the renewed spec selling as most specs trade the nearby contracts.
Tonight’s close has to have recent buyers getting rather nervous. Tonight’s close is the lowest we have seen dating back to the last week of May. December corn trendline support comes in at $3.84 – $3.85. The long term 200 day moving average is at today’s low. Then again anyone trying to key positions off of that long term moving average has been frustrated to say the least. For the time being I pay attention to the trendline support areas and go from there.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/21
July Corn: $3.66 – $3.76
Dec Corn: $3.85 – $3.94
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