Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 2 ½ cents lower ($3.56 ¾), Sept 1 ½ cents lower ($3.66 ¼) and Dec 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.76 ¼)
July Chgo Ethanol closes 0.031 cents a gallon lower ($1.472), August 0.022 cents lower ($1.482)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.015 million bpd vs. 990 K last week – Stocks – 21.8 million bbls vs. 22.3 last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected
It was a very subdued flat price trade on Wednesday as the Sept forward contracts struggled within a 3 cent range. Probably the biggest feature of the day was the July contract taking it on the chin ahead of 1st notice day on Friday. If one looks at basis levels of the selected delivery points one would have to think we’re going to see deliveries. Weather forecasts remain up in the air – most agree it will warm up as we move into July but then the discussion starts as to rainfall potential. The bias is to see the west, northwest stay warm and dry while the central and eastern areas will warm up but also with moisture. Friday is month end, quarter end, first notice day and USDA Stocks & Acreage reports. With all of that happening I’m leaning towards Thursday being another subdued flat price trading day. After Friday when we see what the USDA has to say the next phase of the season starts; what kind of weather will we see during the month of July as the corn crop moves into pollination. It will probably be a month long event given the idea that the corn crop was planted in an uneven timely manner.
Interior cash corn had a mostly firmer bias on Wednesday as movement has slowed to a crawl. Spreads don’t reflect this as the spread market was dominated by liquidation ahead of 1st notice day. Depending on what the USDA has to say about the old crop stocks and acreage there is a chance we are looking at the widest spreads may be for some time.
Flat price continues in its recent consolidation phase just above last week’s lows. Until we see what the USDA has to say and/or changing forecasts to a hotter and drier scenario we’ll be stuck here for another day and a half.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/29
Sept Corn: $3.64 (?) – $3.73 ($3.76)
Dec Corn: $3.74 (?) – $3.83 ($3.86)
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