Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 8 ½ cents higher ($3.91), Dec 8½ cents higher ($4.04 ¾) and March 8 ¼ cents higher ($4.15 ¼)
August Chgo Ethanol closes 0.002 cents a gallon lower ($1.538), Sept 0.010 cents lower ($1.547)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 466.5 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – 212.1 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Flat price corn continues to retrace last week’s break as concerns over hot conditions in the western, southwestern and southern reaches of the Corn Belt and its impact on pollination. The current heat in these areas is expected to continue into the weekend and then by early next week cooler temps are expected to prevail. Moisture, however, is not expected in these currently hot areas. By late next week these areas are expected to heat back up. In the near term what rains we see will be similar to what we saw in recent days; the eastern Dakotas, into Minnesota, the northeastern third of Iowa, into Wisconsin, down into the northern half of Illinois and then into Indiana – at least this is the way I interpret it.
Recent pushes for corn origination at selected River locations are now steady to easier. Other interior locations continue to show a defensive tone. The Gulf has now eased back to levels we saw early last week before the break in the flat price occurred. Now it looks like as the flat price retraces last week’s break the basis backs off suggesting no one really needs any corn right now. Take a look at your spreads – they stay relatively wide (even though spreads did show some improvement today).
The flat price is now back to the low side of where the market broke down from last week. Form a pure technical standpoint these levels should be resistance. Continued dire forecasts can change this as weather markets are your most emotional markets; prices go higher than one may think reasonable just like they go lower than one thinks reasonable. Once again Sunday night, Monday could be filled with high anxiety.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/21
Sept Corn: $3.84 – $3.96 ($3.98)
Dec Corn: $3.97 – $4.10 ($4.12)
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