Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 2 ½ cents higher ($3.72 ¼), Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($3.86 ¼) and March 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.98)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closes 0.003 cents a gallon lower ($1.591), Oct 0.003 cents higher ($1.571)
Weekly Ethanol Grind for week ending August 4th – 1.012 million bpd vs. 1.002 last week – Stocks – 21.3 million bbls vs. 20.9 last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 400-600 K T. expected
Wednesday was a quiet day for corn trading; just a 3 ¾ cent trading range on the day. Tomorrow is the big report from the USDA. Given today’s trade it looks like most participants are set with existing positions and are willing to wait to see what the USDA has to say. See the attached doc for traders’ expectations. Given everything I hear it looks like a 166 bpa yield could be the swing point between bullish and bearish. Similarly a 2.000 billion bu. carryout could also be considered a swing point.
Interior cash corn markets have taken on a mixed look as some locations appear to be reaching for corn while other locations appear to be just shrugging their shoulders. Processors still show the best bids. River locations involved for export seem to gyrating back and forth between locations that need some corn vs. locations that show disinterest. Corn spreads showed a very slight bullish bias on Wednesday. Despite the slight improvement in today’s spread motion corn spreads, overall, continue to show a widening bias. From a technical standpoint most corn spreads appear to be oversold.
The technical look at the corn market has daily momentum indicators shifting to higher. A look at the price action without technical indicators suggests we are in a broad sideways trading affair. $3.74-$3.75 (Dec) would be the downside swing point on the charts while closes above $3.95-$3.96 can be viewed as an upside swing point.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/10
Sept Corn: $3.60 – $3.82
Dec Corn: $3.74 – $3.96

 

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