July Soybeans closed 9 cents lower ($8.80 ½), August 9 cents lower ($8.85 ½) & Nov 9 cents lower ($9.01 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $1.4 lower ($331.8), August $2.0 lower ($332.8) & Dec $3.0 lower ($334.3)
July Soybean Oil closed 18 pts lower ($29.19), August 19 pts lower ($29.29) & Dec 25 pts lower ($29.79)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 301.7 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – 227.6 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Sales – 115.1 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 5.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Sales – 16.0 K T. old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – 5.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
The soy complex continues to trade inside of last Tuesday’s daily range favoring the topside of that range. Concerns continue over the Chinese/US trade tensions. I have yet to hear of any response from China as to Washington’s additional tariff announcements from this past Monday. The tariffs that were announced last Friday from the US and China’s response over the weekend are slated for enactment on July 6th. In addition to keeping the attempt to rally in check are the upcoming reports due out next Friday; 3rd quarter old crop stocks as well as updated planted acres. I think we already know old crop stocks are large. The question around planted acres is “how many more?” Will it be 500 K more or 1.0 million more? For what it is worth weekly export sales were pretty much as expected.
What changes that are being noted with the interior soybean basis are higher. All of the better bids that are being noted are along the river systems. Despite these better bids soybean spreads ran virtually flat on the day. It should be noted that bull spreads were featured in both of the product markets. The July Board crush is the best its been since mid-May and the August Board crush has matched its contract high. Given the slow cash movement of soybeans this probably sets up a bidding war between crushers and exporters. For what it is worth the US export market is not completely dead; just void of Chinese interest.
Unless there is a play involving July option expiration tomorrow I have to think the complex will continue to trade inside of this past Tuesday’s range. Attempts to rally have been met with a lack of enthusiasm. With that said further probes of the downside of Tuesday’s range are expected.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/22
July Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.95
Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.18
July Soybean Meal; $326.0 – $338.0
July Soybean Oil: $28.75 – $29.75
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.