Nov Soybeans close 3 cents higher ($9.79 ¾), Jan 3 cents higher ($9.89 ½) and March 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.96 ¼)
Dec Meal closes $0.3 lower ($306.4), Jan $0.1 lower ($308.2) and March $0.1 higher ($309.8)
Dec Bean Oil closes 12 pts higher ($35.10), Jan 15 pts higher ($35.36) and March 14 pts higher ($35.54)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 2.514 M T. old crop vs. 1.250-1.600 M T. expected; 60.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Meal – 301.0 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected; 4.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Oil – 21.2 K old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected; no new crop vs. none expected
USDA announces 120 K T. soybeans sold to Unknown – 60 K T. old crop, 60 K T. new crop
Informa suggests the national soybean yield is 52.4 bpa leading to a crop size of 4.353 billion bu. – this compares to the October USDA at 51.4 bpa, crop size 4.269
Weekly export sales for soybeans and soybean meal come in better than expected and that slows the recent 4 days of selling. Soybean prices went into a minor consolidation phase as meal prices finished mixed while bean oil finished modestly better. The trade still talks
about the national yield edging higher which in turn would work to offsetting the excellent export demand we have for soybeans. Cumulative weekly soybean export sales are running 8.3 M T. ahead of last year’s pace. Offsetting some of this is the slower pace of sales in both the meal (-854 K T.) and bean oil (-84 K T.) markets. I’m told that Argentina’s offers to sell cash soybean meal undercut US offers by $4-$5 per ton. Bean oil’s best demand comes from the US domestic sector (bio-diesel) as the US is not much a factor in bean oil export markets.
Processor bids for soybeans show a steady to higher bias. River bids continue to trade all over the place as some are noticeably better while some are noticeably lower. The Gulf market has been on the defensive since last Monday. We continue to see a few more soybeans delivered against the November futures’ contract. Soybean spreads ran mostly steady to a fraction better on the day. Offers to sell cash meal remain soft. With that said meal spreads stay soft and wide.
Despite the inside day soybeans registered daily momentum indicators still read clearly lower. The shorter term inter-day indicators read middle of the road. The same holds true for the meal market. Bean oil indicators show the current descent beginning to slow and the short term indicators read higher. Similar to corn I’m thinking the best the complex does ahead of next Wednesday’s data is to chop around without any clear cut direction. One item we have to remain aware of – soybean harvest is in its final legs – history suggests farmer selling will soon shut down for the balance of the year.
Jan Beans: $9.80 ($9.75) – $10.00 Dec Meal; $304.0 ($302.0) – $312.5 Dec Bn Oil: $34.45 – $35.50
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