Soybean Commentary
Nov Soybeans close 5 ¼ cents lower ($9.75 ½), March 5 cents higher ($9.96) and July 5 cents lower ($10.13 ¾)
Dec Soybean Meal closes $1.7 lower ($314.2), March $1.7 lower ($319.4) and July $1.6 lower ($324.7)
Dec Soybean Oil closes 29 pts lower ($34.34), March 29 pts lower ($34.68) and July 29 pts lower ($35.05)
Inter-market spreading; buying feedgrains/selling oilseeds is featured once again. Soybean harvest is now 70% complete. With that said hedge related selling should be declining after this week. Forecasts (US) for the balance of the week suggest clearing with the coldest temps of the season. Forecasts for Brazil suggest better rain late this week and into next week. Some longer term forecasters are suggesting a distinct pattern change is on tap for Brazil as they move into November; drier in southeast Brazil and wetter in the central western areas. The meal market remains the weak sister of the complex and that in turns weighs on soybeans. Most of the downside we saw on Tuesday came in a grinding type manner; not all that typical of full blown long liquidation.
Few if any changes are being seen in the interior soybean basis. Central Illinois processors show the best bid. River bids are sloppy looking. The Gulf basis is stabilizing after last week’s weakest bids of the season to date. Soybean spreads ran steady to fractionally lower on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain depressed. Meal spreads, too, ran steady to fractionally weaker on the day.
Despite trading lower for most of the day the soybean and soybean meal markets continue to honor suggested support levels; $9.75-$9.70 November soybeans and $314.0-$312.0 December soybean meal. December soybean oil is dealing with some interim resistance in the mid to high $34.00’s. It is my idea that until Brazilian planting has been deemed successful we are not going to see any great washout within the soybean complex.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/25
Nov Beans: $9.70 – $9.89
Dec Meal; $312.0 ($310.0) – $320.0
Dec Bn Oil: $33.90 – $34.60
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