Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close 11 ¾ cents lower ($9.78 ¾), July 11½ cents lower ($9.89 ½) and Nov 10 ½ cents lower ($9.87 ½)
Dec Soybean Meal expires $3.9 lower ($321.2), March closes $5.3 lower ($321.6), July $4.9 lower ($330.6) and Dec $4.5 lower ($326.7)
Dec Soybean Oil expires 9 pts lower ($33.02), March closes 3 pts lower ($33.37), July 1 pt lower ($33.69) and Dec 1 pt higher ($33.36)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.452 M T. old crop vs. 1.400-2.000 M T. expected – 113.2 K T. new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 455.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 14.5 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Over the past few days rain has been filtering into some of the dry areas of Argentina. More is expected over the weekend and into next week. This weather event/forecast has been dominating the soybean complex’s trade since midday Tuesday. In addition to the developing beneficial weather for Argentina Brazilian weather has been barely short of ideal (trade ideas have the Brazilian crop growing in size beyond what CONAB said the other day). Weekly soybean export sales came in at the low end of expectations. Weekly soybean meal export sales were noticeably higher than expected; they fell on deaf ears. Weekly soybean oil sales came in midrange of expectations. As of this writing its all about supply and it appears to be increasing.
Toledo improves their soybean bid by 2 cents. All other locations that I track are running unchanged. The Gulf for soybeans continues to be somewhat of a dog. Beans spreads were quiet upfront while inching wider against the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to be at or near historic lows. Needless to say meal spreads continue to inch wider almost in step with soybean spreads.
Soybeans and soybean meal continue to grind through what was suspected as interim support. Bean oil is trying to realize support at the $33.00 level (Jan). I would like to think we can attempt to consolidate beans and meal on Friday as we await the outcome of the forecasted weekend rain event for Argentina. Unfortunately Thursday’s price action does not suggest that. The price action has shown a willingness to accept the recent lower interim lows. There has been so sign of rejection. The only bit of technical support the bean and meal markets have going for themselves in the short term is that inter-day technical data reads oversold. That, however, can be alleviated with a quietly higher night time session.
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/15
Jan Beans: $9.63 (?) – $9.76
Jan Meal; $320.0 (?) – $325.0
Jan Bn Oil: $32.75 – $33.65
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