Soybean Commentary
Jan Soybeans close 2 cents lower ($9.54), March 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.64 ½), July 1 ¾ cents lower ($9.86 ½) and Nov¾ cent lower ($9.76)
Jan Soybean Meal closes $0.5 higher ($315.7), March $0.6 higher ($319.7), July $0.6 higher ($326.5) and Dec $1.4 higher ($324.0)
Jan Soybean Oil closes 26 pts lower ($32.96), March 26 pts lower ($33.13), July 23 pts lower ($33.47) and Dec 28 pts lower ($33.09)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop 1.300-1.800 M T. expected – new crop 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop 100-300 K T. expected – new crop none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop 5-25 K T. expected – new crop none expected
The grind lower in soybeans continues despite a minor flip-flop in the recent bean oil/meal spreading. Soybean meal managed to finish nominally higher on the day but it was not very encouraging to the “wanna be” bulls when one looks at the meal market’s close vs. its high of the day. Bean oil slips from a continued heavy palm oil market. Upcoming cold weather considerations for the Midwest put the minor bid in the soybean meal market. For what it is worth – China is tightening the specs on imported US soybeans – FM will not be tolerated above 2% with 1% being the max preferred. Other than that there wasn’t much around to influence the soybean market as weather issues for SA are a non-event right now.
Most interior soybean basis locations are running unchanged with a couple showing minor improvements. The Gulf basis is starting to develop into a higher trend. This could last until new crop from SA (Brazil in particular) comes on line. Brazilian harvest is expected to start a few weeks later this year due to the late start it had. If one remembers Brazil had concerns over dryness back in September. Soybean spreads ran mixed to softer on the day. Offers to sell cash meal continue to be historically soft; both for domestic usage and for export. Meal spreads ran fractionally softer within the crop year; losing noticeably to the new crop.
If I’m out in left field please let me know but I’m having a hard time thinking there is much left on the downside for the current bean and meal sell off. An attempt at consolidation/retracement would be purely technical in nature. All I know is that I can’t sell current levels. It’s hard to sell a market when it has been down 9 out of the last 10 days (soybeans).
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/21
Jan Beans: $9.47 ½ – $9.65
Jan Meal; $312.0 – $320.0
Jan Bn Oil: $32.75 ($32.50) – $33.35
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