Soybean Commentary
Jan Soybeans close 9 ¾ cents lower ($9.45 ¾), March 10 ¾ cents lower ($9.56 ¾), July 10 ¼ cents lower ($9.78 ¾) and Nov 7¼ cents lower ($9.72 ¾)
Jan Soybean Meal closes $2.4 lower ($311.8), March $2.4 lower ($316.1), July $2.4 lower ($322.7) and Dec $1.6 lower ($322.3)
Jan Soybean Oil closes 57 pts lower ($32.50), March 56 pts lower ($32.71), July 54 pts lower ($33.10) and Dec 46 pts lower ($32.88)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop 800 K – 1.500 M T. expected – new crop none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop 100-300 K T. expected – new crop none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop 5-25 K T. expected – new crop none expected
So much for the iffy forecasts for Argentina supporting the US soy complex. The price action would suggest Brazilian growing conditions are so good they will offset any short coming in the Argentine crop. Failing palm oil prices (once again) has bean oil trading down to levels not seen since last June. Soybean meal is on the verge of taking out support levels that have held since early October. Soybeans are now at levels not seen since late August. Make a long story short – the US soybean complex is looking almost pathetic.
The interior soybean basis continues to show a steady to higher bias. This holds true for export as well. Excluding the fun and games in the Jan contract (1st notice day is tomorrow) soybean spreads ran steady upfront and went easier from there. The infamous July/Nov spread registered new contract lows today at a 5 cent inverse. Offers to sell cash meal continue to be depressed. Most processors have now rolled to basis March. Maybe it’s my imagination but it appears they rolled at a tighter spread than what the Jan/March is showing. Meal spreads ran steady within the crop year while old crop still eases vs. the new crop.
If the last two days of trading in the soybean complex are going to be any indication of what the last day of trading is going to like most will be happy to see 2017 come to an end. Volatility in the soybean complex continues to be historically low and that is synonymous with the lack of uncertainty. The “certainty” is we are not putting a dent in the supply of soybeans.
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/29
March Beans: $9.50 – $9.64
March Meal; $312.5 – $319.0
March Bn Oil: $32.20 – $33.15
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.